The summer of 2012 drew to a close in September with home sale activity well below historical averages in the Greater Vancouver housing market.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,516 in September, a 32.5 per cent decline compared to the 2,246 sales in September 2011 and an 8.1 per cent decline compared to the 1,649 sales in August 2012.

September sales were 41.6 per cent below the 10-year September sales average of 2,597.

“There’s been a clear reduction in buyer demand in the three months since the federal government eliminated the availability of a 30-year amortization on government-insured mortgages,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said. “This makes homes less affordable for the people of the region.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,321 in September. This represents a 6.3 per cent decline compared to September 2011 when 5,680 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 31.6 per cent increase compared to the 4,044 new listings in August 2012.

At 18,350, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 14.1 per cent from this time last year and increased 4.5 per cent compared to August 2012.

“Today, our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 8 per cent, which puts us in a buyer’s market. This ratio has been declining in our market since March when it was 19 per cent,” Klein said.

The MLS HPI® composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $606,100. This represents a decline of 0.8 per cent compared to this time last year and a decline of 2.3 per cent over last three months.

“Prices in the region remain relatively stable overall, although we do see some reductions in the areas that have had some of the largest price increases over the last year or two,” Klein said.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in September 2012 reached 594, a decrease of 37.9 per cent from the 957 detached sales recorded in September 2011, and a 31.4 per cent decrease from the 866 units sold in September 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties decreased 0.5 per cent from September 2011 to $935,600.

Sales of apartment properties reached 676 in September 2012, a 26.7 per cent decrease compared to the 922 sales in September 2011, and a decrease of 30.4 per cent compared to the 971 sales in September 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 0.7 per cent from September 2011 to $368,600.

Attached property sales in September 2012 totalled 246, a 33 per cent decrease compared to the 367 sales in September 2011, and a 35.8 per cent decrease from the 383 attached properties sold in September 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 2.7 per cent between September 2011 and 2012 to $458,600.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - April 17, 2012

The Bank of Canada left its overnight rate unchanged at 1 per cent for the 13th consecutive meeting. In the statement accompanying the decision the Bank noted that economic momentum in Canada is slightly firmer than the Bank had forecast in January and that economic headwinds from the US and Europe have abated somewhat. However, the Bank still judges the continued accumulation of debt by Canadian households to be the biggest domestic risk facing the economy. The Bank further noted that the degree of economic slack has been smaller than anticipated in January and that the economy is now expected to return to full capacity in the first half of 2013. Given a more rapid return to full capacity, we may see rate increases sooner than the mid-2013 date that most economists have penciled in. Indeed, the Bank sounded a more hawkish note in concluding their statement on the interest rate decision, citing that a modest withdrawal of monetary stimulus may become appropriate given firmer underlying inflation. However, the Bank was careful to condition that any withdrawal of stimulus would need to be balanced against domestic and global economic developments. 

Our bias, and our modeling, still point to rates remaining at 1 per cent until the first quarter of 2013. However expectations of an increasingly hawkish Bank of Canada may start to get priced into long-term interest rates which could push mortgage rates higher in coming months.

Canadian GDP Growth - Q3 - November 30, 2011

Canadian economic growth rebounded strongly in the third quarter of 2011 following a slight contraction in Q2.  Real GDP data released this morning showed that the economy grew a robust 3.5 per cent last quarter, propelled higher by surging exports. However, domestic demand moderated as consumers and businesses reigned in spending. 

Our forecast is for economic growth to slow in the fourth quarter and through much of 2012, likely to an average rate of between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent. Slow growth in Canada and uncertainty in the global economy will keep inflation steady and allow the Bank of Canada to hold off on rate hikes through much of next year, with the potential for moderate tightening near the end of 2012.