Over the past six months, the Greater Vancouver housing market has seen a reduction in the number of homes listed for sale, a gradual moderation in home prices and a decrease in property sales compared to historical averages.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,686 on the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November, a 28.6 per cent decline compared to the 2,360 sales in November 2011 and a 12.7 per cent decline compared to the 1,931 home sales in October 2012.

November sales were 30.3 per cent below the 10-year November sales average of 2,420.

“Home sellers appear more inclined to remove their properties from the market today rather than lower prices to sell their properties. On the other hand, buyers appear to be expecting prices to moderate,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.
 
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,758 in November. This represents a 14.4 per cent decline compared to November 2011 when 3,222 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 36.2 per cent decline compared to the 4,323 new listings in October 2012.

New listings were 12.9 per cent below the 10-year November average of 3,168.

At 15,689, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 13 per cent from this time last year and declined 9.7 per cent compared to October 2012. Total listings in the region have declined by nearly 3,000 properties since reaching a peak of 18,493 in June.

The region’s sales-to-active-listings ratio was unchanged from October at 11 per cent.

“Home prices in Greater Vancouver have generally declined between three and five and a half per cent, depending on property type, since reaching a peak six months ago,” Klein said. “Changes in home prices vary per municipality and neighbourhood. It’s good to check local market statistics with your REALTOR®.”

Since reaching a peak in May of $625,100, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has declined 4.5 per cent to $596,900. This represents a 1.7 per cent decline when we compared to this time last year.

Sales of detached properties in Greater Vancouver reached 629 in November, a decrease of 31.3 per cent from the 916 detached sales recorded in November 2011, and a 40.1 per cent decrease from the 1,050 units sold in November 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 5.5 per cent to $914,500.

Sales of apartment properties reached 750 in November 2012, a 25 per cent decrease compared to the 1,000 sales in November 2011, and a decrease of 28.7 per cent compared to the 1,052 sales in November 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined 3.9 per cent to $364,900.

Attached property sales in November 2012 totalled 307, a 30.9 per cent decrease compared to the 444 sales in November 2011, and a 24.6 per cent decrease from the 407 attached properties sold in November 2010. Since reaching a peak in April, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 3.6 per cent to $454,300.

Feature Facts:

• Of the 15,689 homes currently for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver, 49.6 per cent are listed for $600,000 or less. Of those, 1,321 are detached properties, 5,039 are condominiums and 1,419 are townhomes.
• Of the 1,686 homes that sold in Greater Vancouver in November, 273 (16%) sold for $1 million or more.

Consumer Price Index - November 23, 2012

Canadian consumer price inflation was tame in October, registering just 1.2 per cent year-over-year.  The Bank of Canada's core inflation index, which excludes the eight most volatile components of the CPI like energy and food, rose 1.3 per cent in October, matching the rate from September.  Inflation in BC fell to just 0.5 per cent year-over-year. 

Very low core inflation suggests that the Canadian economy is still operating with a substantial amount of excess supply. So, in spite of a clear tightening bias, inflation running near the bottom of the Bank of Canada's target control range suggests that rising interest rates remain far off on the horizon. 

The Greater Vancouver housing market saw a slight increase in the number of home sales, a slight reduction in the number of listings, and a slight decrease in home prices in October compared to the summer months. With those changes, the sales-to-active-listings ratio increased to 11 per cent in October from 8 per cent in September.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported 1,931 residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties on the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, a 16.7 per cent decline compared to the 2,317 sales in October 2011 and a 27.4 per cent increase compared to the 1,516 home sales in September 2012.

October sales were 28.5 per cent below the 10-year October sales average of 2,700.

“Buyer demand increased slightly in October compared to the previous few months,” Sandra Wyant, REBGV president-elect said. “Overall conditions in today’s market remain in favour of buyers, with low interest rates, more choice, and less time pressure in terms of decision-making. This translates into a calmer atmosphere for those looking to buy a home and it places more onus on sellers to ensure their homes are priced to compete in today’s marketplace.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,323 in October. This represents a 1.2 per cent decline compared to October 2011 when 4,374 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and an 18.8 per cent decline compared to the 5,321 new listings in September 2012.

At 17,370, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 12 per cent from this time last year and declined 5.3 per cent compared to September 2012.

Since reaching a peak of $625,100 in May, the MLS Home Price Index® (MLS HPI®) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver declined 3.4 per cent to $603,800 in October. This represents a 0.8 per cent decline compared to last year.

“There’ve been modest price changes since they peaked in the spring. The largest reductions have occurred in the areas and property types that experienced the biggest price increases over the last few years,” Wyant said.

Since hitting a record high in April, the benchmark price of a detached home on the Westside of Vancouver has declined 8.6 per cent while detached homes in Richmond and West Vancouver have seen declines of 6 per cent over the same time period.

Sales of detached properties in Greater Vancouver reached 790 in October, a decrease of 18.9 per cent from the 974 detached sales recorded in October 2011, and a 19.1 per cent decrease from the 976 units sold in October 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 4.1 per cent to $927,500.

Sales of apartment properties reached 803 in October 2012, a 16.2 per cent decrease compared to the 958 sales in October 2011, and a decrease of 18.4 per cent compared to the 984 sales in October 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined 2.9 per cent to $368,800.

Attached property sales in October 2012 totalled 338, an 11.5 per cent decrease compared to the 382 sales in October 2011, and a 10.3 per cent decrease from the 377 attached properties sold in October 2010. Since reaching a peak in April, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 2.9 per cent to $457,700.

The summer of 2012 drew to a close in September with home sale activity well below historical averages in the Greater Vancouver housing market.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,516 in September, a 32.5 per cent decline compared to the 2,246 sales in September 2011 and an 8.1 per cent decline compared to the 1,649 sales in August 2012.

September sales were 41.6 per cent below the 10-year September sales average of 2,597.

“There’s been a clear reduction in buyer demand in the three months since the federal government eliminated the availability of a 30-year amortization on government-insured mortgages,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said. “This makes homes less affordable for the people of the region.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,321 in September. This represents a 6.3 per cent decline compared to September 2011 when 5,680 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 31.6 per cent increase compared to the 4,044 new listings in August 2012.

At 18,350, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 14.1 per cent from this time last year and increased 4.5 per cent compared to August 2012.

“Today, our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 8 per cent, which puts us in a buyer’s market. This ratio has been declining in our market since March when it was 19 per cent,” Klein said.

The MLS HPI® composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $606,100. This represents a decline of 0.8 per cent compared to this time last year and a decline of 2.3 per cent over last three months.

“Prices in the region remain relatively stable overall, although we do see some reductions in the areas that have had some of the largest price increases over the last year or two,” Klein said.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in September 2012 reached 594, a decrease of 37.9 per cent from the 957 detached sales recorded in September 2011, and a 31.4 per cent decrease from the 866 units sold in September 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties decreased 0.5 per cent from September 2011 to $935,600.

Sales of apartment properties reached 676 in September 2012, a 26.7 per cent decrease compared to the 922 sales in September 2011, and a decrease of 30.4 per cent compared to the 971 sales in September 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 0.7 per cent from September 2011 to $368,600.

Attached property sales in September 2012 totalled 246, a 33 per cent decrease compared to the 367 sales in September 2011, and a 35.8 per cent decrease from the 383 attached properties sold in September 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 2.7 per cent between September 2011 and 2012 to $458,600.

Home sale activity remained below long-term averages in the Greater Vancouver housing market in August.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,649 in August, a 30.7 per cent decline compared to the 2,378 sales in August 2011 and a 21.4 per cent decline compared to the 2,098 sales in July 2012.

August sales were the second lowest total for the month in the region since 1998 and 39.2 per cent below the 10-year August sales average of 2,711.

“Home sales this summer have been lower than we’ve seen for most of the past ten years, yet we continue to see relative stability when it comes to prices,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,044 in August. This represents a 13.7 per cent decline compared to August 2011 when 4,685 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 15.8 per cent decline compared to the 4,802 new listings in July 2012.

“For sellers it’s critical to work with your REALTOR® to understand today’s market and to develop the best strategy for selling your home,” Klein said. “On average it’s taking about two months for a home to sell on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver today.”

At 17,567, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 13.8 per cent from this time last year and declined 2.8 per cent compared to July 2012.

“Today, our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 9 per cent, which puts us in a buyer’s market. This ratio has been declining in our market since March when it was 19 per cent,” Klein said.

The MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is $609,500. This represents a decline of 0.5% compared to this time last year and a decline of 1.1% compared to last month.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in August 2012 reached 624, a decrease of 38.8 per cent from the 1,020 detached sales recorded in August 2011, and a 30.1 per cent decrease from the 893 units sold in August 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 0.2 per cent from August 2011 to $942,100.

Sales of apartment properties reached 725 in August 2012, a 24.1 per cent decrease compared to the 955 sales in August 2011, and a decrease of 22.5 per cent compared to the 935 sales in August 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property decreased 0.9 per cent from August 2011 to $370,100.

Attached property sales in August 2012 totalled 300, a 25.6 per cent decrease compared to the 403 sales in August 2011, and a 19.8 per cent decrease from the 374 attached properties sold in August 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 1.9 per cent between August 2011 and 2012 to $462,300.

Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver remained at a 10-year low in July, while the number of properties being listed for sale continued to edge down and prices remained relatively stable.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that there were 2,098 residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in July. That’s an 18.4 per cent decline compared to the 2,571 sales in July 2011 and an 11.2 per cent decline compared to the previous month’s 2,362 sales.

July sales were the lowest total for that month in the region since 2000. They were 31.2 per cent below the 10-year July sales average of 3,051.

“People appear to be cautious about making significant financial decisions right now. While our local economy appears to be quite robust, there may be some concern about the impact of international markets and the federal government’s tightening of mortgage regulations,” says Eugen Klein, REBGV president.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,802 in July, the lowest number of new listings for any month this year. This represents a 5.8 per cent decline compared to July 2011 when 5,097 properties were newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) and a 14.5 per cent decline compared to the 5,617 new listings reported in June 2012.

At 18,081, the total number of active residential property listings on the MLS® increased 18.8 per cent from this time last year and decreased 2.2 per cent compared to the previous month.

“With a sales-to-actives-listing ratio of 11.6 per cent, conditions have favoured buyers in our marketplace in recent months,” Klein said. “That means buyers have more selection to choose from and more time to make a decision. For sellers, it’s important to price properties competitively. For information on local market prices, contact your REALTOR®.”

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 0.6% to $616,000 and declined 0.7% compared to last month.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in July 2012 reached 787, a decrease of 28.4 per cent from the 1,099 detached sales recorded in July 2011, and a 13.3 per cent decrease from the 908 units sold in July 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 1.4 per cent from July 2011 to $950,200 and declined 1.2 per cent compared to last month.

Sales of apartment properties reached 927 in July 2012, a 10.9 per cent decrease compared to the 1,040 sales in July 2011, and a decrease of 5.3 per cent compared to the 979 sales in July 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property remains unchanged compared to July 2011 at $374,300 and declined 0.5 per cent compared to last month.

Attached property sales in July 2012 totalled 384, an 11.1 per cent decrease compared to the 432 sales in July 2011, and a 4.3 per cent increase from the 368 attached properties sold in July 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 0.5 per cent between July 2011 and 2012 to $468,700 and is relatively unchanged compared to last month.

The number of residential property sales hit a 10-year low in Greater Vancouver for June, while prices remained relatively stable.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 2,362 in June, a 27.6 per cent decline compared to the 3,262 sales in June 2011 and a 17.2 per cent decline compared to the 2,853 sales in May 2012.

June sales were the lowest total for the month in the region since 2000 and 32.2 per cent below the 10-year June sales average of 3,484.

“Overall conditions have trended in favour of buyers in our marketplace in recent months,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said. “This means buyers are facing less competition and have more selection to choose from compared to earlier in the year.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,617 in June. This represents a 3 per cent decline compared to June 2011 when 5,793 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and an 18.9 per cent decline compared to the 6,927 new listings reported in May 2012.

At 18,493, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 22 per cent from this time last year and increased 3.7 per cent compared to May 2012.

“Today, our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 13 per cent, which puts us in the lower end of a balanced market. This ratio has been declining in our market since March when it was 19 per cent,” Klein said.

The MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 1.7% and declined 0.7% compared to last month.

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in June 2012 reached 921, a decrease of 37.4 per cent from the 1,471 detached sales recorded in June 2011, and a 19.1 per cent decrease from the 1,139 units sold in June 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 3.3 per cent from June 2011 to $961,600.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,026 in June 2012, a 19 per cent decrease compared to the 1,266 sales in June 2011, and a decrease of 18.4 per cent compared to the 1,258 sales in June 2010. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 0.3 per cent from June 2011 to $376,200.

Attached property sales in June 2012 totalled 415, a 21 per cent decrease compared to the 525 sales in June 2011, and a 27.8 per cent decrease from the 575 attached properties sold in June 2010. The benchmark price of an attached unit decreased 0.1 per cent between June 2011 and 2012 to $468,400.

The number of properties listed for sale continued to increase in the Greater Vancouver housing market in May. The number of sales decreased year over year, but remained relatively constant compared to recent months.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,853 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May 2012. This represents a 15.5 per cent decline compared to the 3,377 sales recorded in May 2011.

May sales were the lowest total for the month in the region since 2001 and 21.1 per cent below the 10-year May sales average of 3,617. However, sales have been constant throughout the spring months, with 2,874 sales in March and 2,799 sales in April.

“Home sellers have outpaced buyers in recent months, however, there continues to be an overall balance between supply and demand in our marketplace,” Eugen Klein, REBGVpresident said.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 6,927 in May 2012. This represents a 16.8 per cent increase compared to May 2011 when 5,931 homes were listed for sale and a 14.4 per cent increase compared to April 2012 when 6,056 homes were listed for sale on the region’s MLS®.

Last month’s new listing total was 15.3 per cent above the 10-year average for listings in Greater Vancouver for May.

At 17,835, the total number of homes listed for sale on the region’s MLS® increased 7.9 per cent in May compared to last month and increased 21 per cent from this time last year.

“Our sales-to-active-listing ratio sits at 16 per cent, which is indicative of balanced market conditions,” Klein said. “As a result of this stability, home prices at the regional level have seen little fluctuation over the last six month.”

The MLS® HPI benchmark price* for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver currently sits at $625,100, up 3.3 per cent compared to May 2011 and up 2.4 per cent over the last three months. The benchmark price for all residential properties in the Lower Mainland** is $558,300, which is a 3 per cent increase compared to May 2011 and a 2.3 per cent increase compared to three months ago. 

Sales of detached properties on the MLS® in May 2012 reached 1,180, a decline of 24.8 per cent from the 1,570 detached sales recorded in May 2011, and a 6.1 per cent decrease from the 1,256 units sold in May 2010. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 5.1 per cent from May 2011 to $967,500.

Sales of apartment properties reached 1,156 in May 2012, a decline of 5.9 per cent compared to the 1,228 sales in May 2011, and a decrease of 14.6 per cent compared to the 1,354 sales in May 2010.The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 1.7 per cent from May 2011 to $379,700.

Townhome property sales in May 2012 totalled 517, a decline of 10.7 per cent compared to the 579 sales in May 2011, and a 5.3 per cent decrease from the 546 townhome properties sold in May 2010. The benchmark price of a townhome unit increased 0.9 per cent between May 2011 and 2012 to $470,000.

*Editor’s Note: Benchmark prices underwent a re-calculation this month in order to more accurately reflect trends measured by the MLS® Home Price Index. There were no changes to the calculation of index values.

This re-calculation involved aggregating benchmark prices using the sales weighted approach for the reference period (i.e. January 2005) and thereafter linking movements in aggregate benchmark prices to their corresponding MLS® HPI.
 
The methodology, available at www.homepriceindex.ca, will be updated later this week.

**Lower Mainland: Includes areas covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.

Spotlight on Greater Vancouver home prices:

No surprises from the Bank of Canada this morning. The Bank left its overnight rate at 1 per cent, where it has been since September 2010.  The statement released this morning in support of the interest rate decision noted that while global economic headwinds continue to restrain economic activity, the Canadian economy is growing roughly in line with its production potential.  On inflation, the Bank sees core inflation returning to its 2 per cent target over the next 12 months. 

The Bank once again made clear that a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus may be become appropriate as excess supply in the Canadian economy is absorbed, but that such withdrawals would need to be weighed against domestic and global economic developments. Given ongoing uncertainty in the Euro-zone and the unresolved "fiscal cliff" in the United States, that caveat means that the Bank will likely hold off on raising rates until early 2013. We expect monetary tightening to proceed very cautiously, with perhaps a 25 to 50 basis points increase over 2013, bringing the Bank’s overnight rate to between 1.25 and 1.5 per cent by the end of next year.

The Canadian economy expanded 1.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2012, following similar growth in the first quarter. Growth was driven by a 7.2 per cent increase in business investment and an 11.4 per cent bounce in nonresidential investment.  Other sectors of the economy showed moderate growth with consumer spending growing just over 1 per cent while residential investment slowed considerably compared to previous quarters. Cuts to Government spending and a deterioration in Canada's trade balance subtracted from growth in the second quarter. 

Economic growth last quarter was slightly weaker than the Bank of Canada forecast and we are forecasting growth for the balance of the year to hold close to 2 per cent.  Given modest growth and stable inflation, we expect the Bank to hold its overnight target rate at 1 per cent through the remainder of 2012 before testing the water with a 25 basis point increase in early 2013. 

No surprises from the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this morning. The Bank opted to keep its overnight rate at 1 per cent, where it has been for nearly two years.  The statement released in support of the interest rate decision noted that, in the Bank’s judgement, Canadian economic growth and inflation are unfolding largely as anticipated. A wave of risk aversion due to heightened anxiety over the Euro-crisis has sent Canadian bond-yields plummeting and market expectations for Bank of Canada rate increases have sharply reversed course. However, in today’s statement the Bank once again signaled to markets its preference for higher interest rates over the medium term and its intention to modestly withdraw stimulus as slack in the Canadian economy is absorbed.  

The  Bank also stated that any such withdrawal will be weighed against domestic and global economic developments.  In its last interest rates announcement, the Bank suggested that the Euro-crisis had moved from an acute to chronic phase. While this turned out to be a misdiagnosis, it does suggest that the Euro-mess does not have to be completed resolved for the Bank to begin tightening policy, but it does need to be stable.  At this point, with policymakers and politicians in Europe still struggling to put out a number of fires, it is difficult to see a clear path to a stable Europe in the coming months. Therefore, it is increasingly unlikely that the Bank will begin raising interest rates in late 2012, though it has certainly left that door open.