Wednesday, May 15, 2013 Housing Market Conditions ImprovingVancouver, BC – May 15, 2013. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,904 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during April, up 1.9 per cent from March on a seasonally adjusted basis, but down 2.2 per cent compared to April 2012. Total sales dollar volume declined 3 per cent to $3.65 billion. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $528,507, down 0.8 per cent from a year ago.
"BC home sales trended higher again in April, with seasonally adjusted unit sales now 8 per cent higher since the beginning of the year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "Market conditions were at or near balanced conditions in Victoria, Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and the North last month, leading to a firming up of home prices." The MLS® Home Price Index edged up 0.7 per cent over the past month in the Lower Mainland, and 1.5 per cent over the past three months. Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 16.6 per cent to $10.8 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 13.9 per cent to 20,476 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 3.1 per cent at $529,785. Thursday, May 9, 2013 Transition Year of BC HousingTransition Year Expected for BC Housing Market Vancouver, BC – May 9, 2013. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2013 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.
"Stricter mortgage credit regulation combined with slower economic growth has kept BC home sales at a cyclical low over the past three quarters," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "However, a faster growing economy is expected during the second half of the year and through 2014 which will support a growth trend in provincial housing demand." "The BC average home price forecast is revised upward for 2013, from a decline of 1 per cent to remaining unchanged, as a result of stronger than expected market conditions in Vancouver," added Muir. The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast at $515,800 this year, before rising 1.7 per cent to $524,500 in 2014. Thursday, March 14, 2013 Pent-Up Demand GrowingCategories:bc,BC Market Update, Vancouver Real Estate Home Sales Continue at Modest Pace: Pent-Up Demand Growing Vancouver, BC – March 14, 2013. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 4,501 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during February, down 23.6 per cent compared to February 2012. Total sales dollar volume was down 29.9 per cent to $2.39 million. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $514,134, up 3.1 per cent from January, but down 8.1 per cent from a year ago.
"BC home sales continued at a modest pace in February,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Despite improved affordability, many potential buyers and sellers remain in a holding pattern. With pent up demand now becoming latent in the market, it’s not a matter of if, but when home sales rise above their current pace."
“An unusual spike in the average MLS® residential price in February 2012 is largely responsible for the year-over-year percentage change,” added Muir. “Most BC markets have experienced relatively stable price levels during the first two months of the year.”
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 24.6 per cent to $4.1 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 19.6 per cent to 7,911 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 6.2 per cent at $523,117. Wednesday, March 6, 2013 Overnight Rate Held at 1%Categories:bc e,BC Economics Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - March 6, 2013 The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank sees economic growth in Canada picking-up through 2013, as growth in exports and business investment offset a slowdown in household spending and residential construction. On inflation, the Bank noted that low core and total CPI inflation have been more subdued than the Bank projected, owing to significant excess capacity in the economy. Given low inflation and what the Bank terms a "constructive evolution of imbalances" in the household sector (meaning a lower pace of debt accumulation), the Bank has walked back its previous rate tightening bias stating that, "current levels of monetary stimulus will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required."
Weak economic growth through the second half of last year will likely bleed into the first half of 2013, which means a continuation of subdued inflation of just over 1 per cent. In fact, the outlook for growth and inflation is weak enough that, if the Bank had not spent the last year voicing concern over the perilous state of household finances, a 25 basis point cut in the Bank’s overnight target would be increasingly likely. Instead, the Bank will put a future rate hike on hold for the foreseeable future, with rates gradually increasing in 2014. Monday, February 18, 2013 Home Sales Remain Subdued but StableCategories:BC,BC Real estate market BC Home Sales Remain Subdued but Stable Vancouver, BC – February 18, 2013. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 3,410 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during January, up 1.8 per cent from December on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, but down 13.6 per cent compared to January 2012. Similarly, total sales volume increased 3.8 per cent SA, but declined 16 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $514,134, up 3.2 percent from December, however, down 2.7 per cent from a year ago.
"Despite a modest uptick in consumer demand last month, home sales have remained relatively stable at a noticeably lower level since last August,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Continuing low mortgage interest rates combined with an easing back of home prices in some areas is expected to trend home sales higher during the spring and summer months." “The ratio of home sales to new listings is indicative of a balanced market at 42 per cent,” added Muir. “However, there remains a backlog of existing home listings to either sell or be pulled off the market before supply and demand can be considered in check.” Dramatic swings in average price statistics caused by a surge and subsequent pullback in luxury home sales appear to be near an end. The year-over-year change in average prices now more closely reflects the home price indices in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Wednesday, January 30, 2013 BC Homes Sales on the Rise 2013/2014BC Home Sales to Trend Higher in 2013/2014 Vancouver, BC – January 30, 2013.The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2013 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.
"2013 is shaping up to be a transition year in the BC housing market,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The groundwork has already begun for stronger housing demand as a significant number of part-time jobs in BC were converted into full-time employment last year." "Residential values are expected to be on a more solid footing in 2013 as lower prices, both actual and inflation adjusted, have improved affordability. Many potential buyers that stayed on the sidelines in 2012 will likely enter the marketplace over the next year as the relatively strong financial condition of BC households precludes any deflationary spiral." The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast to edge down nearly 1 per cent to $510,400 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2014, albeit up 0.6 per cent to $513,500. Friday, December 21, 2012 BC Housing Sale update Dec /2012BC Home Sales Pulled Lower by Vancouver/Fraser Valley Vancouver, BC – December 13, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that the dollar volume of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 24.6 per cent to $2.3 billion in November compared to the same month last year. A total of 4,680 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period, down 17 per cent from November 2011. The average MLS® residential price was $480,861, down 9.1 per cent from a year ago.
"A slower pace of consumer demand in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley contributed to fewer home sales province-wide in November,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “While more stringent mortgage credit regulations for low equity borrowers have squeezed some buyers out of the market, the broader slowdown may be a pre-cursor to more elevated activity in 2013, resulting from pent-up demand." Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 18.7 per cent to $33.3 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales declined 11 per cent to 64,626 units, while the average MLS® residential price was 8.6 per cent lower at $515,611. Friday, November 23, 2012 Interest Rates to remain low.Categories:,Bank Rates,BC Economics,BC Market Update,BC Real estate market,BCREA,Canadian Inflation,Canadian Interest Rates,Interest Rates,Lance Brown,Vancityishome,Vancouver Market Update,Vancouver Real Estate,Vancouver Real Estate market BCREA ECONOMICS NOW Consumer Price Index - November 23, 2012 Canadian consumer price inflation was tame in October, registering just 1.2 per cent year-over-year. The Bank of Canada's core inflation index, which excludes the eight most volatile components of the CPI like energy and food, rose 1.3 per cent in October, matching the rate from September. Inflation in BC fell to just 0.5 per cent year-over-year. Friday, October 26, 2012 BC Sales ForecastBC Home Sales Forecast to Grow in 2013 Vancouver, BC – October 26, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2012 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.
"Despite stronger consumer demand in the interior, BC home sales will fall short of last year’s total,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “A moderating trend in Vancouver has recently been exacerbated by tighter high-ratio mortgage regulation. The resulting decline in purchasing power has squeezed some potential buyers out of the market. However, strong full-time employment growth, persistently low mortgage interest rates and an expanding population base point to more robust consumer demand in 2013." "While the average MLS® residential price is forecast to decline 7.6 per cent to $518,600 this year, the change is largely the result of luxury home sales returning to more normal levels after an unusually active 2011,” added Muir. In addition, the Lower Mainland’s share of provincial home sales is expected to decline to 57 per cent this year from 62 per cent in 2011.The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast to edge up 0.7 per cent to $522,000 in 2013. Tuesday, October 23, 2012 Interest Rate UpdateCategories:Bank Rates,BC Economics,BC Market Update,BC Real estate market,BCREA,Vancouver Market Update,Vancouver Real Estate,Vancouver Real Estate market Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - October 23, 2012 The Bank of Canada once again opted to hold its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent this morning. Interest rates have been held constant for over two years, the longest such period since the 1950s. The Bank somewhat tempered its bias for higher future interest rates, including a softer statement regarding the appropriateness of a gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus as excess supply in the economy is absorbed. In a bit of a surprise, the Bank actually raised its forecast for the growth in the Canadian economy this year to 2.2 per cent, but kept its 2013 forecast at 2.3 per cent growth. The Bank judges that at that pace of growth, the Canadian economy will return to full capacity by the end of 2013. It is our view that monetary policy at the Bank of Canada will continue to be constrained by external events in the global economy and household debt growth at home. While the Bank's preference for tighter policy is clear, it is difficult to make a case for higher interest rates when core inflation is below the Bank's 2 per cent target and already slow economic growth is threatened by global uncertainty. Therefore, we are forecasting that the Bank of Canada will hold its target overnight rate at 1 per cent until mid-to-late 2013 when, conditioned on an improved global economic outlook, it may test the water with a 25 basis point rate increase. Tuesday, October 23, 2012 Inflation UpdateCategories:Bank Rates,BC Economics,BC Market Update,BC Real estate market,BCREA,Vancouver Market Update,Vancouver Real Estate market BCREA ECONOMICS NOW Canadian Consumer Price Inflation - October 19, 2012
Canadian consumer prices rose just 1.2 per cent in the 12 months to September, as higher energy prices were tempered by lower year-over-year prices for motor vehicles and food products. The Bank of Canada's core inflation index, which excludes the eight most volatile components of the CPI like energy and food, rose 1.3 per cent in September, down from 1.6 per cent in August. Inflation in BC fell below 1 per cent in September as prices were flat month-over-month and up just 0.7 per cent year-over-year.
The Bank of Canada, which meets Tuesday to decide on interest rates, remains caught in a fine balance. The trajectory of the output gap and the outlook for inflation would under normal conditions, and under conventional monetary economics have already pushed the Bank to tighten interest rates. However, potential interest rate increases have been deferred by a near crisis environment in Europe, a stop-and-go US economy, and perhaps most importantly, the highly indebted position of Canadian households. These factors will remain far more influential over monetary policy over the next year than monthly inflation reports. However, September's soft inflation numbers will help make the case for holding rates steady at 1 per cent. Wednesday, October 10, 2012 Canadian Housing StartsBCREA ECONOMICS NOW
Canadian Housing Starts - October 9, 2012
Canadian housing starts remained robust in September at 220,215 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), down slightly from August's 225,328 (SAAR). New home construction in BC urban centres was essentially flat in September at 27,199 units (SAAR) compared to 28,233 in August. On a year-over-year basis, multiple units starts in BC were 4 per cent higher while single family starts were 16 per cent lower. Overall, BC housing starts were 2 per cent lower than September 2011. Year-to-date, BC starts are 9 per cent higher than 2011. Wednesday, September 26, 2012 Retail Sales RiseCategories:BC Economics,Vancityishome Canadian Retail Sales - September 25, 2012
Canadian retail sales rose 0.7 per cent in July, offsetting the decline in June. Retail strength was broad-based with 8 of 11 retail sub-sectors reporting higher sales. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were up 0.6 per cent. Thursday, September 13, 2012 US Fed will impact Canadian RatesCategories:Bank Rates,BC Economics,BC Market Update,BC Real estate market,Lance Brown,Vancityishome,Vancouver Market Update US Federal Reserve Announces Third Round of Quantitative Easing - September 13, 2012
In a widely anticipated move, the US Federal Reserve announced today that it will conduct a third round of quantitative easing (QE). The primary difference between QE3 and the Fed’s previous two quantitative easing programs is that QE3 asset purchases (which will amount to $85 billion per month, including $45 billion in mortgage debt) are open-ended and, most importantly, will continue until there is a substantial improvement in US labour market conditions. That is, the Fed has tied the duration of its latest program of asset purchases to an explicit macroeconomic objective. The Fed also extended its commitment to keep its target Federal Funds rate at near zero levels through at least mid-2015.
The theory underlying quantitative easing is that asset purchases will stimulate the economy by lowering long-term interest rates, including interest rates on mortgage debt, thus encouraging investment while giving a much needed jolt to the US housing market. While the evidence for the impact on growth and employment from past QE programs is mixed, pairing open-ended asset purchases and a commitment to keep interest rates low for an extended period with a specific objective has much support in academic literature.
The implications of the Fed’s announcement for Canadian interest rates are two-fold. One, the commitment by the Fed to keep interest rates at near zero levels until mid-2015 further constrains the Bank of Canada’s ability to raise interest rates over the same period. Particularly as Canadian exports have already softened under the weight of an appreciating loonie. Second, already low long-term bond-yields will likely price-in a continuation of very low short-term rates and will therefore likely remain at historically low levels for an extended period which should keep Canadian mortgage rates well-anchored to current historically low levels. Tuesday, September 11, 2012 BC Housing StartsCategories:BC Economics,BC Market Update,BC Real estate market,BCREA,Vancityishome,Vancouver Market Update,Vancouver Real,Vancouver Real Estate,Vancouver Real Estate market BCREA ECONOMICS NOW Canadian Housing Starts - September 11, 2012
Canadian housing starts jumped over 8 per cent in August to 224,900 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), from July's 208,000 (SAAR). New home construction in BC urban centres rose close to 18 per cent from 24,2000 units (SAAR) in July to 28,600 units (SAAR) in August. On a year-over-year basis, BC housing starts were 21 per cent higher than August 2011. Friday, September 7, 2012 Canadian Employment Update - Sept 2012BCREA ECONOMICS NOW Canadian and US Employment - September 7, 2012
Canadian job growth bounced back in August as employment expanded by 34,300. Just as last month's over 30,000 job losses were entirely due to part-time employment, this month's gains were the result of those jobs being added back. Part-time employment grew by 46,700 while, full-time employment fell 12,500. The Canadian unemployment rate held steady at 7.3 per cent Wednesday, September 5, 2012 Bank of Canada Interest Rate UpdateBCREA ECONOMICS NOW
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - September 5, 2012
No surprises from the Bank of Canada this morning. The Bank left its overnight rate at 1 per cent, where it has been since September 2010. The statement released this morning in support of the interest rate decision noted that while global economic headwinds continue to restrain economic activity, the Canadian economy is growing roughly in line with its production potential. On inflation, the Bank sees core inflation returning to its 2 per cent target over the next 12 months. Friday, August 31, 2012 BCREA GDP Growth UpdateCategories:BC Economics,BC Market Update,BC Real estate market,Lance Brown,Vancityishome,Vancouver Market Update,Vancouver Market Update. 1st Time home Buyers,Vancouver Real,Vancouver Real Estate,Vancouver Real Estate market,Vancouver West Real Estate,Yaletown BCREA ECONOMICS NOW Canadian Q2 Real GDP Growth - August 31, 2012
The Canadian economy expanded 1.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2012, following similar growth in the first quarter. Growth was driven by a 7.2 per cent increase in business investment and an 11.4 per cent bounce in nonresidential investment. Other sectors of the economy showed moderate growth with consumer spending growing just over 1 per cent while residential investment slowed considerably compared to previous quarters. Cuts to Government spending and a deterioration in Canada's trade balance subtracted from growth in the second quarter. Thursday, August 30, 2012 BC Homes Sales to Rise in 2013Categories:BC Economics,BC Market Update,BC Real estate market,Downtown VE,Downtown VW,Fairview VW,Kitsilano,Lance Brown,Main,Vancityishome,Vancouver East Real Estate,Vancouver Market Update,Vancouver Market Update. 1st Time home Buyers,Vancouver Real,Vancouver Real Estate,Vancouver Real Estate market,Vancouver West Real Estate,West End VW,Yaletown BC Home Sales to Rise in 2013
BCREA 2012 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update Vancouver, BC – August 30, 2012. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2012 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.
"Despite more robust consumer demand in the Interior, fewer home sales in Vancouver will pull the BC total lower this year," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "However, a notable growth trend in full-time employment combined with persistently low mortgage interest rates is expected to boost housing demand around the province in 2013." "MLS® residential prices are expected to remain relatively stable this year and through 2013, with changes in average price statistics largely the result of a differing mix of home types sold and shifting regional demand patterns," added Muir. Average price data for Vancouver was skewed artificially high in 2011 by a wave of detached home sales in the priciest neighbourhoods. Lower Mainland's share of provincial home sales is expected to decline to 58 per cent this year from 62 per cent in 2011. The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast to decline 7.8 per cent to $517,500 this year, and remain relatively unchanged at $519,000 in 2013. Categories: | B | Bank Rates | BC | bc e | BC Economics | BC Market U | BC Market Update | BC Market Update, Vancouver Real Estate | BC Real | BC Real estate market | BCREA | Buyers | Cambie | Canadian Inflation | Canadian Interest Rates | Downtown VE | Downtown VW | Fairview VW | False Creek | False Creek North | Fraser VE | Grandview VE | Housing Forecast | Interest Rates | Kitsilano | Lance Brown | Main | Marpole | Mount Pleasant VE | Mount Pleasant VW | Out of Town | Out of Town Real Estate | Port Moody Centre | Port Moody Real Estate | University VW | Vancityis | Vancityishome | Vancouver East Real Estate | Vancouver Market Update | Vancouver Market Update. 1st Time home Buyers | Vancouver Real | Vancouver Real Estate | Vancouver Real Estate Bubble | Vancouver Real Estate market | Vancouver West Real Estate | West End VW | Yaletown |
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to edge up 1.9 per cent to 68,900 units this year, before increasing a further 6.5 per cent to 73,400 units in 2014. The five-year average is 74,600 unit sales, while the ten-year average is 86,800 unit sales. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 5.6 per cent to 71,450 units this year, before increasing a further 6.1 per cent to 75,830 units in 2014. The five-year average is 74,600 unit sales, while the ten-year average is 86,800 unit sales. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to decline 9.8 per cent to 69,200 units this year, before increasing 8.3 per cent to 74,920 units in 2013. The fifteen-year average is 79,000 unit sales, while a record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.
BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to edge down 4 per cent to 73,400 units this year, before increasing 7.5 per cent to 78,900 units in 2013. Since 2009, MLS® residential sales in BC have ranged between 74,000 to 78,000 units. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.Simple Searches
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