Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - January 23, 2013

It may be a new year but it is the same story this morning from the Bank of Canada which once again held its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The statement released in support of the interest rate decision noted that the global economic outlook is weaker than the Bank previously projected, though risk of a severe external shock to the economy has diminished. As a result, the slowdown in the Canadian economy in the second half of 2012 was more pronounced than the Bank had anticipated. The Bank has revised its estimate for economic growth in 2012 lower, to 1.9 per cent, and now forecasts 2 per cent growth in 2013 before an acceleration to 2.7 per cent in 2014. Importantly, the Bank has also shifted its expectation that the economy will reach full capacity out to the second half of 2014. On inflation, the Bank expects growth in consumer prices to run significantly below its 2 per cent target for much of 2013 before gradually rising to target in 2014. 

Following two years of overly optimistic forecasts, the Bank has struck a slightly more dour tone in its outlook. The gloomier growth forecast and positive signs that households are reigning in household debt have prompted the Bank to revise its language on the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus.  In its concluding statement accompanying the rate decision, a key focus of monetary policy watchers over the past year,  the Bank continued to note that a withdrawal of stimulus would likely be required over time, but that the timing of any such withdrawal is less imminent than previously anticipated. This strongly suggests that interest rates will remain constant at 1 per cent for all of 2013.

No surprises from the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this morning. The Bank opted to keep its overnight rate at 1 per cent, where it has been for nearly two years.  The statement released in support of the interest rate decision noted that, in the Bank’s judgement, Canadian economic growth and inflation are unfolding largely as anticipated. A wave of risk aversion due to heightened anxiety over the Euro-crisis has sent Canadian bond-yields plummeting and market expectations for Bank of Canada rate increases have sharply reversed course. However, in today’s statement the Bank once again signaled to markets its preference for higher interest rates over the medium term and its intention to modestly withdraw stimulus as slack in the Canadian economy is absorbed.  

The  Bank also stated that any such withdrawal will be weighed against domestic and global economic developments.  In its last interest rates announcement, the Bank suggested that the Euro-crisis had moved from an acute to chronic phase. While this turned out to be a misdiagnosis, it does suggest that the Euro-mess does not have to be completed resolved for the Bank to begin tightening policy, but it does need to be stable.  At this point, with policymakers and politicians in Europe still struggling to put out a number of fires, it is difficult to see a clear path to a stable Europe in the coming months. Therefore, it is increasingly unlikely that the Bank will begin raising interest rates in late 2012, though it has certainly left that door open.

Canadian Consumer Price Inflation - May 18, 2012

Canadian CPI inflation registered 2.0 per cent (year-over-year) in April, a 0.1 point increase from March inflation of 1.9 per cent. The rise in consumer prices was led by transportation costs, including a 3.3 per cent rise in gasoline prices. In fact, Statistics Canada's gasoline Index reached a 4 year high in April. The Bank of Canada's core inflation measure, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.1 per cent in April, up from 1.9 per cent in March. Consumer prices in BC were 1.6 per cent higher in April (year-over-year), matching the increase in March. 

Today's CPI report, in combination with very strong Canadian employment growth in March and April, lends further support to the Bank of Canada's case for raising interest rates this fall. We anticipate at least one 25 basis point increase in the Bank of Canada's overnight rate between October and December this year. The one factor potentially delaying a rise in rates could be an increasingly likely Greek exit from the European Monetary Union. Such an event may roil financial markets enough to put BoC rate hikes off the table.