Home Sales Continue at Modest Pace: Pent-Up Demand Growing

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - March 6, 2013

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent.  The Bank sees economic growth in Canada picking-up through 2013, as growth in exports and business investment offset a slowdown in household spending and residential construction.  On inflation, the Bank noted that low core and total CPI inflation have been more subdued than the Bank projected, owing to significant excess capacity in the economy. Given low inflation and what the Bank terms a "constructive evolution of imbalances" in the household sector (meaning a lower pace of debt accumulation), the Bank has walked back its previous rate tightening bias stating that, "current levels of monetary stimulus will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required."

Weak economic growth through the second half of last year will likely bleed into the first half of 2013, which means a continuation of subdued inflation of just over 1 per cent. In fact, the outlook for growth and inflation is weak enough that, if the Bank had not spent the last year voicing concern over the perilous state of household finances, a 25 basis point cut in the Bank’s overnight target would be increasingly likely.  Instead, the Bank will put a future rate hike on hold for the foreseeable future, with rates gradually increasing in 2014.

BC Home Sales Remain Subdued but Stable

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - January 23, 2013

It may be a new year but it is the same story this morning from the Bank of Canada which once again held its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The statement released in support of the interest rate decision noted that the global economic outlook is weaker than the Bank previously projected, though risk of a severe external shock to the economy has diminished. As a result, the slowdown in the Canadian economy in the second half of 2012 was more pronounced than the Bank had anticipated. The Bank has revised its estimate for economic growth in 2012 lower, to 1.9 per cent, and now forecasts 2 per cent growth in 2013 before an acceleration to 2.7 per cent in 2014. Importantly, the Bank has also shifted its expectation that the economy will reach full capacity out to the second half of 2014. On inflation, the Bank expects growth in consumer prices to run significantly below its 2 per cent target for much of 2013 before gradually rising to target in 2014. 

Following two years of overly optimistic forecasts, the Bank has struck a slightly more dour tone in its outlook. The gloomier growth forecast and positive signs that households are reigning in household debt have prompted the Bank to revise its language on the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus.  In its concluding statement accompanying the rate decision, a key focus of monetary policy watchers over the past year,  the Bank continued to note that a withdrawal of stimulus would likely be required over time, but that the timing of any such withdrawal is less imminent than previously anticipated. This strongly suggests that interest rates will remain constant at 1 per cent for all of 2013.

Over the past six months, the Greater Vancouver housing market has seen a reduction in the number of homes listed for sale, a gradual moderation in home prices and a decrease in property sales compared to historical averages.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties reached 1,686 on the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November, a 28.6 per cent decline compared to the 2,360 sales in November 2011 and a 12.7 per cent decline compared to the 1,931 home sales in October 2012.

November sales were 30.3 per cent below the 10-year November sales average of 2,420.

“Home sellers appear more inclined to remove their properties from the market today rather than lower prices to sell their properties. On the other hand, buyers appear to be expecting prices to moderate,” Eugen Klein, REBGV president said.
 
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,758 in November. This represents a 14.4 per cent decline compared to November 2011 when 3,222 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 36.2 per cent decline compared to the 4,323 new listings in October 2012.

New listings were 12.9 per cent below the 10-year November average of 3,168.

At 15,689, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 13 per cent from this time last year and declined 9.7 per cent compared to October 2012. Total listings in the region have declined by nearly 3,000 properties since reaching a peak of 18,493 in June.

The region’s sales-to-active-listings ratio was unchanged from October at 11 per cent.

“Home prices in Greater Vancouver have generally declined between three and five and a half per cent, depending on property type, since reaching a peak six months ago,” Klein said. “Changes in home prices vary per municipality and neighbourhood. It’s good to check local market statistics with your REALTOR®.”

Since reaching a peak in May of $625,100, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has declined 4.5 per cent to $596,900. This represents a 1.7 per cent decline when we compared to this time last year.

Sales of detached properties in Greater Vancouver reached 629 in November, a decrease of 31.3 per cent from the 916 detached sales recorded in November 2011, and a 40.1 per cent decrease from the 1,050 units sold in November 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 5.5 per cent to $914,500.

Sales of apartment properties reached 750 in November 2012, a 25 per cent decrease compared to the 1,000 sales in November 2011, and a decrease of 28.7 per cent compared to the 1,052 sales in November 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined 3.9 per cent to $364,900.

Attached property sales in November 2012 totalled 307, a 30.9 per cent decrease compared to the 444 sales in November 2011, and a 24.6 per cent decrease from the 407 attached properties sold in November 2010. Since reaching a peak in April, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 3.6 per cent to $454,300.

Feature Facts:

• Of the 15,689 homes currently for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver, 49.6 per cent are listed for $600,000 or less. Of those, 1,321 are detached properties, 5,039 are condominiums and 1,419 are townhomes.
• Of the 1,686 homes that sold in Greater Vancouver in November, 273 (16%) sold for $1 million or more.

BC Home Sales Pulled Lower by Vancouver/Fraser Valley

Consumer Price Index - November 23, 2012

Canadian consumer price inflation was tame in October, registering just 1.2 per cent year-over-year.  The Bank of Canada's core inflation index, which excludes the eight most volatile components of the CPI like energy and food, rose 1.3 per cent in October, matching the rate from September.  Inflation in BC fell to just 0.5 per cent year-over-year. 

Very low core inflation suggests that the Canadian economy is still operating with a substantial amount of excess supply. So, in spite of a clear tightening bias, inflation running near the bottom of the Bank of Canada's target control range suggests that rising interest rates remain far off on the horizon. 

The Greater Vancouver housing market saw a slight increase in the number of home sales, a slight reduction in the number of listings, and a slight decrease in home prices in October compared to the summer months. With those changes, the sales-to-active-listings ratio increased to 11 per cent in October from 8 per cent in September.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported 1,931 residential property sales of detached, attached and apartment properties on the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, a 16.7 per cent decline compared to the 2,317 sales in October 2011 and a 27.4 per cent increase compared to the 1,516 home sales in September 2012.

October sales were 28.5 per cent below the 10-year October sales average of 2,700.

“Buyer demand increased slightly in October compared to the previous few months,” Sandra Wyant, REBGV president-elect said. “Overall conditions in today’s market remain in favour of buyers, with low interest rates, more choice, and less time pressure in terms of decision-making. This translates into a calmer atmosphere for those looking to buy a home and it places more onus on sellers to ensure their homes are priced to compete in today’s marketplace.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,323 in October. This represents a 1.2 per cent decline compared to October 2011 when 4,374 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and an 18.8 per cent decline compared to the 5,321 new listings in September 2012.

At 17,370, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 12 per cent from this time last year and declined 5.3 per cent compared to September 2012.

Since reaching a peak of $625,100 in May, the MLS Home Price Index® (MLS HPI®) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver declined 3.4 per cent to $603,800 in October. This represents a 0.8 per cent decline compared to last year.

“There’ve been modest price changes since they peaked in the spring. The largest reductions have occurred in the areas and property types that experienced the biggest price increases over the last few years,” Wyant said.

Since hitting a record high in April, the benchmark price of a detached home on the Westside of Vancouver has declined 8.6 per cent while detached homes in Richmond and West Vancouver have seen declines of 6 per cent over the same time period.

Sales of detached properties in Greater Vancouver reached 790 in October, a decrease of 18.9 per cent from the 974 detached sales recorded in October 2011, and a 19.1 per cent decrease from the 976 units sold in October 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 4.1 per cent to $927,500.

Sales of apartment properties reached 803 in October 2012, a 16.2 per cent decrease compared to the 958 sales in October 2011, and a decrease of 18.4 per cent compared to the 984 sales in October 2010. Since reaching a peak in May, the benchmark price for an apartment property in Greater Vancouver has declined 2.9 per cent to $368,800.

Attached property sales in October 2012 totalled 338, an 11.5 per cent decrease compared to the 382 sales in October 2011, and a 10.3 per cent decrease from the 377 attached properties sold in October 2010. Since reaching a peak in April, the benchmark price for an attached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 2.9 per cent to $457,700.